POLITICO Florida’s exit polls are showing that Donald Trump has lost to Hillary Rodham Clinton by a significant 4 points, according to a new poll.
Trump led Clinton by 2 points in the first of two statewide exit polls conducted this week by the Florida Atlantic University Survey Center.
But that margin dropped to 4 points when the poll was extended to include two days of interviews.
Exit polls can’t measure the impact of specific issues, but it’s possible that the poll results reflect the views of the electorate overall.
A Clinton victory in Florida would be a huge blow to Trump’s campaign, but there’s little doubt that Florida’s political environment will shift in a few weeks.
The Florida Senate race, which could decide control of the Senate, is still a few days away, and the race for governor has yet to be decided.
And the race in Pennsylvania, which has a large number of Democratic and Republican delegates, is in the middle of a very close race between two of the state’s most popular candidates.
“I think it’s going to be close, but I think we’re probably in a dead heat here,” said Mark Schmiedecker, a professor of political science at the University of Florida.
Schmierdeker added that Trump’s support among Democrats was likely due to his popularity with independents, who voted overwhelmingly for Clinton.
Trump won nearly twice as many Democrats as Republicans in Florida in the March 15 election, with 52 percent to Clinton’s 34 percent.
Clinton has had a particularly strong month, but she’s also had some problems.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll of likely voters found Trump leading Clinton by 10 points in Virginia, which is one of the swing states that will determine control of Congress.
Exit polling in Florida showed a 3-point edge for Clinton in the latest survey, which was conducted Wednesday and Thursday, and a 5-point lead for Trump in the third.
Trump has made a number of controversial comments about immigrants, women, Muslims and African Americans.
Florida’s new poll found that his support among white voters was down by 8 points, but among non-whites, the shift was significant.
The survey of 1,056 likely voters in Florida, conducted by Gravis Marketing, found that Trump leads Clinton among nonwhites by 10 percentage points.
Trump’s overall lead is about 2 points, with the poll of 794 likely voters showing him at 45 percent, with Clinton at 44 percent.
The new poll shows Trump trailing Clinton by 8 percentage points among black voters, who made up about 25 percent of the Florida electorate.
But Trump’s popularity with black voters is much lower than among white and Hispanic voters, the poll found.
And among Hispanics, Trump led by 3 points, while Clinton trailed by 2.
A spokeswoman for the Florida Republican Party said in a statement that the new poll showed that “there is no evidence to suggest the election results in Florida are any different from those in other states.”
In the latest poll, Clinton leads Trump by 9 points among registered voters in the Sunshine State, according.
Florida is not a swing state and it is far from being a blue state.
In 2012, Barack Obama won the state by 9.6 points.
The state also is a big producer of young voters, a group that Trump often cites as a reason for his unpopularity among voters.
“It’s not a state that’s always going to come down to a primary,” Schmieser said.
“But it’s definitely a battleground state that will definitely come down in the next few weeks.”
Florida is a battleground because the presidential election is one ballot, and there are about two million ballots cast in the election, according the Florida Department of State.
There are three candidates running in Florida’s primary elections, and each of them has their own path to victory.
Clinton is leading among women, independents and Democrats, but her lead among white people is not as large.
The most recent Reuters/Wealthy Women Index showed Clinton with a 9.9 percentage point lead over Trump in Florida.
And Trump leads among white men, but Clinton is ahead among men of all races.
“The more people know about each of the candidates, the more people will say, ‘Look, they’re the same person,'” Schmierser said, adding that that’s why he believes that Trump could win in Florida if the election were held today.