Exit polls: Labor’s win is a sign of strength but not a mandate July 16, 2021 July 16, 2021 admin

The latest Australian exit poll suggests Labor’s majority is not a lock for the party and the Prime Minister is on track to lose the next election.

Key points:The exit poll showed Labor’s support at 52 per cent with 18 per cent undecidedAAP poll put Labor on 42 per cent support with 9 per cent unsureThe exit polls found the Coalition had a 10 per cent lead on Labor, with a 5 per cent margin for the Greens and the Greens were on 2 per centSupport for the Coalition was slightly lower, with 8 per cent for Labor and 4 per cent not sureWhat’s the story?

The poll was conducted between October 19 and October 20 and polled 1,000 Australians aged 15 and over.

It shows Labor’s lead over the Coalition has shrunk to just five per cent, down from a 13 per cent edge two weeks ago.

It’s a marked change from the day before, when Labor had a lead of 18 points.

The ABC understands the poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 per cent.

However, the exit poll also found Labor’s share of the vote was down four percentage points, with the Coalition on 52 per in favour, down two points from the previous poll.

“A majority of Australians say Labor is doing a better job than the Coalition in the current parliament, but the Coalition is also seeing a surge in support,” the exit polls said.

“The latest Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) poll put the Coalition at a 42 per per cent share of votes, Labor at a 5 percent lead on that, with Greens and Independents on 2 percent each.”

The poll also showed support for the Nationals on 16 per cent and support for independents on 4 per, with support for Coalition candidates on 15 per cent each.

“Labor has led the opposition in the polls for four consecutive years, but there are growing concerns that the Coalition’s numbers have been growing,” the poll said.

The results are significant, given the Coalition lost its majority in the Senate in the recent election.

The poll found Labor had an eight point lead over Labor in the seat of South Melbourne, which the Government won by 51 votes to 48.

Labor had a 13-point lead over Coalition candidate Greg Hunt in the electorate of Coffs Harbour, which Labor lost to the Nationals in the last election.

Mr Hunt won the seat by a margin exceeding the Coalition candidate’s vote count of 10,744 to 10,400.

The exit survey also found the Prime Ministers lead in Tasmania had shrunk to four points from three points in the latest poll.